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Generative AI, the revolutionary realm of artificial intelligence systems endowed with the prowess to concoct new content and undertake intricate tasks, has set the world ablaze. In June 2023, the global consulting juggernaut McKinsey & Company unveiled The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier, an opus delving into the ramifications of generative AI on labor and economic growth. Part three of this report ventures into the terrain of generative AI's impact, elucidating the economic benefits, productivity repercussions, and ramifications reverberating across diverse industries and occupations. Here are salient findings extracted from the report.
Job metamorphosis through automation
Generative AI wields the power to reshape the landscape of employment as machines gracefully shoulder an extensive repertoire of tasks. The report posits that as much as two-thirds of work hours could fall under the sway of generative AI automation. This transformative shift entails relegating menial tasks to the realm of machines while automating routine and repetitive endeavors, liberating human workers to channel their energies into the more intricate and imaginative dimensions of their roles. Generative AI emerges as an augmentation and elevation of human skills, refraining from a wholesale replacement. As some tasks are mechanized, novel responsibilities may sprout forth, necessitating the seamless integration of AI technologies into work processes. This entails overseeing and collaborating with AI systems, interpreting and harnessing AI-generated insights, and navigating the ethical quandaries entwined with AI applications.
Consequently, the report underscores the metamorphosing skill prerequisites spurred by the widespread adoption of generative AI. As select tasks embrace automation, the demand for skills entwined with AI collaboration swells. Proficiency in data analysis, algorithm design, AI programming, and human-AI interaction emerges as indispensable traits in an era where humans and machines forge increasingly collaborative workflows. Consequently, for workers spanning myriad industries, adeptness in effectively harmonizing with AI technologies has transmuted into an inescapable requirement. Workers must be primed to embark on a journey of acquiring novel skills, engaging in lifelong learning, and adapting to the ever-evolving tapestry of job roles. To facilitate this harmonious transition, organizations and policymakers shoulder a pivotal responsibility in fostering skills development initiatives, furnishing training opportunities, and cultivating supportive environments.
Generative AI as the harbinger of heightened labor productivity
The report ascertains that generative AI, unfurled across the course of the next 10 to 20 years, could pave the way for an annual surge in labor productivity growth, ranging between 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent. This revelation underscores the capacity of adopting generative AI to instigate a substantial upswing in productivity across diverse industries and sectors. Elevated productivity growth begets augmented economic output, heightened efficiency, and amplified living standards, as more output can be harnessed from the same input. This consequential boon bolsters the competitiveness of companies and economies on a global scale. However, the report accentuates the indispensability of effective implementation strategies. It underscores the need for organizations to mull over a multifaceted array of factors, encompassing reskilling the workforce, adeptly managing organizational change, addressing ethical concerns, and seamlessly integrating AI technologies into pre-existing work processes, in order to fully capitalize on the advantages that bolstering productivity affords.
Greater impact in higher-education and higher-wage occupations
The impact of generative AI is poised to reverberate more profoundly in occupations that demand higher levels of education and boast heftier paychecks. This revelation underscores the likelihood of generative AI exerting a more pronounced influence in knowledge-intensive and technical realms. Occupations such as content writers, translators, customer service representatives, marketing and legal professionals entangled in the intricacies of document analysis and review may find themselves at the forefront of this transformative wave. Meanwhile, disciplines reliant on visual and spatial acumen, including graphic designers, architects, and artists, may witness heightened susceptibility to the advancements in image generation and other AI-powered visual-content manipulation.
In the said report, estimates are expected to delineate the proportion of work activities that harbor the potential for automation through the advent of generative AI. These figures, contingent upon the complexity of tasks within generative AI's grasp and the degree of automation integration, are subject to variation. Current evidence suggests that anywhere between 30% to 40% of work activities possess the latent potential for automation fueled by generative AI's prowess.
Can generative AI be the knight in shining armor for Explainable AI (XAI)?
When harnessed within specific domains, generative AI, particularly large language models, attains even greater zeniths of power. Take, for instance, the endeavors of 21strategies, which trains tactical AI to exhibit specific conduct in the digital twin of a battlefield through their Serious Game of defense, GhostPlay. Yet, it falls upon human analysts to decipher the "how" and "why" behind machine tactics, imparting a lucid understanding to clients regarding the machinations of tactical AI manifested in GhostPlay. 21strategies has embarked on an internal research endeavor to fathom the capacity of generative AI, exemplified by ChatGPT, to interpret and articulate the motives behind specific defensive tactics witnessed on the battlefield. If this audacious venture were to triumph, it could potentially resolve the quandaries of XAI, at least for GhostPlay and its derivative defense games.
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Source:
Chui, Michael; Hazan, Eric; Roberts, Roger; et al. (2023). The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier. New York, NY: McKinsey & Company.
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-AI-the-next-productivity-frontier#/ (16. June 2023)
